Estimating sea turtle population sizes

A study recently published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B demonstrates how numbers of nesting turtles may be overestimated by a factor of two. Does this mean that there may only be half as many turtles as previously thought?

Sea turtle population size estimates have traditionally depended on walking kilometres of beach to record turtle sightings, tracks and nests, night after night. Marking turtles with small metal flipper tags helps to identify individuals and determine how many times the average female lays eggs. However, since it is impossible to flipper tag and intercept every turtle every time it nests, there is a tendency to underestimate the number of egg clutches that a female lays. Based on existing data, scientists have assumed that green turtles lay on average 3.5 clutches in a nesting season. This means that if, for example, 210 egg clutches were recorded on one beach, then the local nesting population would consist of 60 individual females. Currently, most population size estimates around the world work with this assumption.

In this new study, researchers used satellite tags to track individual female green turtles in the Indian Ocean to assess how many times they nested during the breeding season. The high-accuracy GPS location data revealed that individual turtles laid on average six clutches of eggs – almost twice as many as previously thought. On the basis of these data, a recording of 210 egg clutches would result in a much smaller nesting population of 35 females.



Fastloc-GPS Argos SPLASH tags (a) were attached to nesting green sea turtles (b) to record how many clutches females lay in a breeding season. (Source: Proceedings of the Royal Society B)

This research confirms similar conclusions of studies on green turtles nesting in Ascension Island and loggerhead turtles nesting in Florida. This suggests that scientists and conservationists need to re-examine their assumptions about sea turtle nesting frequency and take into account the possibility that many sea turtle nesting population numbers are being over-estimated. Dr Jeanne A Mortimer, an author of the study, comments: “We are not saying that all sea turtle populations have been overestimated by a factor of two. But we demonstrate how easy it is to do so inadvertently.” So while the absolute number of sea turtles in the oceans has not changed, our understanding of their biology and our estimates of their population sizes have improved. The authors hope that this new research “will encourage more people to use satellite tracking technology to help solve the many remaining mysteries about sea turtles that are so important to enabling us to effectively assess and manage their populations.”

How numbers of nesting sea turtles can be overestimated by nearly a factor of two” was published by Proceedings of the Royal Society B (2017). Authors: Nicole Esteban, Jeanne A. Mortimer and Graeme C. Hays.